Mountain West Week 8 Preview

Week 7 of the season clarified things in the Mountain West Conference. TCU established itself as the favorite in conference title race, while Utah took a step back after a sub-par showing against Wyoming. San Diego State upset Air Force, re-emerging as a title contender. Colorado State also won, keeping its bowl hopes alive. What lessons will we learn in Week 8?

Air Force at TCU
The conference’s top game pits Air Force (5-2, 3-1) against TCU (7-0, 3-0). This contest presents a different opportunity for each team. Air Force wants to win this game to remain in the Mountain West title race. A decisive TCU win would boost the Horned Frogs in the computer polls, and perhaps raise their BCS ranking.

When Air Force has the ball, two nationally ranked units will face off. Air Force has the top rushing offense in the country, while TCU ranks second nationally in total defense. While the Falcons have run the ball well all season, they have not played a defense with the speed and athleticism that the Horned Frog defense has. TCU will contain Air Force’s ground game, placing the Falcons in third and long situations. QB Tim Jefferson will struggle against the Horned Frog secondary.

On the other side of the ball, TCU’s offense will look to get the ball in the hands of its skill players. The Horned Frog offensive lineman will overpower the undersized Falcon defenders. Air Force ranks in the Top 20 in passing defense, so TCU will likely keep the ball on the ground with RB’s Ed Wesley and Matthew Tucker.

This game will remain close, with TCU pulling away in the second half. By defeating the Falcons by double digits, the Horned Frogs will gain ground on Oklahoma, who only beat Air Force by three points.

Wyoming at BYU
Longtime rivals Wyoming (2-5, 0-3) and BYU (2-5, 1-2) square off this weekend in an important Mountain West contest. The winner of this game has an excellent chance to go to a bowl. In addition, with BYU’s departure from the conference ending this rivalry, each team would like to send the other team packing with a loss.

Wyoming has struggled on offense this season, largely due to a brutal schedule. The Cowboy offense has had its greatest success when they can run the ball effectively. They will attempt to run ball with Alvester Alexander against a BYU defense that has allowed 4.9 yards per carry. The Cougars defense has turned it up a notch the past few weeks, limiting San Diego State to 53 yards rushing, and holding TCU to 3.4 yards per carry. After stopping those two potent attacks, the Cougars will have no trouble stopping Wyoming’s ground game.

BYU will use a conservative offensive game plan against the Wyoming D. They will run the ball with RB’s JJ DiLuigi and Bryan Kariya, and have QB Jake Heaps throw safe passes. The Cowboys will play “bend, but don’t break” defense, and try to create some turnovers.

The Cougars will win this defensive struggle, taking a step closer to a bowl bid.

San Diego State at New Mexico
Former New Mexico Head Coach Rocky Long returns to New Mexico (0-6, 0-2) as defensive coordinator of the surging San Diego State Aztecs (4-2, 1-1). San Diego State needs to win this game to control its own destiny in the conference race, while New Mexico needs a win to turn around a dismal season.

San Diego State features one of the top offenses in the conference, while New Mexico has one of the worst defenses. The Aztecs will turn to big-play running back Ronnie Hillman to gain some yards on the ground, and set up the passing game. New Mexico will take a page out of the BYU playbook, and attempt to take the running game away. Even if the Lobos succeed in stopping the run, they will not stop Aztec WR’s Demarco Sampson and Vincent Brown from making big plays in the passing game.

New Mexico has struggled offensively this season. Injuries have forced the Lobos to use four different QB’s this season. Regardless of who is under center, the Lobos will attempt to establish a ground game with RB Demond Dennis, looking to exploit an Aztec defense that has allowed over 4 yards per carry in Mountain West play. San Diego State will show a number of different looks from its 3-3-5 defense. The changing fronts will confuse the inexperienced Lobo QB’s and generate turnovers.

San Diego State wins this game by three touchdowns. New Mexico simply does not have the talent to match the title-contending Aztecs.

Colorado State at Utah
Colorado State (2-5, 1-2) travels to Utah (6-0, 3-0) to round out the Mountain West schedule this week. The Rams look to build momentum after last week’s 43-10 win over UNLV. The Utes want to put last week's poor second half behind them, and remain undefeated.

The Rams will use a balanced offense against the Ute D. RB’s Leonard Mason and Raymond Carter (if healthy) will get plenty of carries. CSU will also take a few shots down the field looking to hit a big play or two to get on the scoreboard. Utah will play aggressively on defense using stunts, blitzes, and press coverage to shut down the Ram offense.

Utah’s offense averages 45.8 points per game, ranking 4th in the nation in scoring offense. The Utes will establish the run with RB’s Eddie Wide and Matt Asiata. To prevent the Rams from crowding the box to stop the run, QB Jordan Wynn will use a number of different receivers and throw downfield. Like Utah, Colorado State will bring plenty of pressure to force Wynn to rush his throws.

While CSU will keep the game close, they are a year away from contending for the Mountain West title. Utah will win this game by two touchdowns and head into the toughest stretch of its schedule with a perfect 7-0 record.

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